My Predictions - Election Night 2006

Andy Roth has a good collection of election day predictions over at the Club For Growth blog, so I figured I may as well get in on the action.

Today marked the first time I've actually put any effort into putting numbers to my inclinations, as I completed the American University School of Public Affairs Congress Pick 'em pool. I have a personal rule against gambling considering I have absolutely no luck, but this was a no-lose since the winner gets a $50 restaurant gift certificate while the losers concede nothing (pride aside).

I've written several times that Republicans will lose the House this year, and my picks show that Democrats will win a 5-seat majority tomorrow night. This will be due obviously to the GOP's disappointing performance over the past two years (at least), and a little less obviously, to the fact that there are 45 Democratic House incumbents running unopposed this year who were able to throw their campaign cash into other races instead of spending it on themselves.

Overall, the power of incumbency will play a big role in saving the GOP from absolute disaster, though it will be nowhere near as significant as it normally is. Among the more interesting races, look for Diane Farrell and Joe Sestak to buck the trend and, respectively, send Chris Shays and Curt Weldon packing. I, for one, won't miss either.

Kirsten Gillibrand will also oust John Sweeney in New York, due in no small part to Sweeney's ethics issues and Gillibrand's own "looker" points. And Heath Shuler will finally prove he's not a complete loser like he was in the NFL, knocking off proud porker Charles Taylor in North Carolina.

Readers of this blog know that I actually hope to see Republicans lose at least one chamber of Congress this year, due more to my preference for a separation of powers than an affinity to any particular political party. I don't know if these Democrats will be any better than the Republicans they're hoping to replace, but honestly I doubt they'll be any worse. Plus, if Heath Shuler beats Charles Taylor -- voted Porker of the Month back in August by Citizens Against Government Waste -- I promise to take back all the times I made fun of him while he played (miserably) for the Redskins.

As for the Senate, my numbers show the GOP holding a 2-seat advantage. Barely.

Debbie Stabenow, Maria Cantwell, and Robert Menendez will all hold serve for the Democrats, and Amy Klobuchar will defeat Mark Kennedy in Minnesota. Republicans will not be as lucky, however, as Conrad Burns, Mike DeWine, Rick Santorum, and Lincoln Chafee are already as good as gone. I also picked George Allen to lose to Jim Webb in Virginia, while in Missouri Jim Talent holds on by a nose hair against Claire McCaskill (simply because he's probably got more to grab on to), and Arizona's Jon Kyl will outlast Jim Pederson. Bob Corker will also defeat Harold Ford in Tennessee in this battle of the "Juniors," though if there's one Democrat I wouldn't mind seeing win a Senate race, it's Ford.

This leaves one hotly-contested race: Cardin/Steele in Maryland. Both conventional wisdom and the polls have Democrat Ben Cardin winning this race, which, as my predictions stand, would cause an even split in the Senate (Joe Lieberman will blow out Ned Lamont but vote with Democrats).

However, look for Steele to pull this out. He's closing fast and hard, peaking at just the right time, and is taking advantage of timely endorsements by prominent black Democrats in Prince George's County. This means a Steele victory -- a rather unusual outcome to be sure in such a blue state in a Democrat-friendly year -- would give the GOP the 2-seat lead I've predicted.

Now, if I'm wrong and Steele loses, I wouldn't be surprised to see the GOP retain a 2-seat advantage because the one other race I may be wrong about is Allen/Webb. In short, one of these two Republicans will win. But considering Mike Steele has much more character than George Allen, I hope it goes down the way I've predicted.

So, to recap, Republicans lose the House by five seats but retain the Senate by two. Die-hard GOPers will view any Republican loss as the end of the world, but I think it's time for a little reality check for the GOP, which has by and large sold its supporters down the river.

Comments

[badbob]

I like the theme of this better T. The analysis may be more accurate for today, 6 Nov:

http://www.americanprowler.org/dsp_article.asp?art_id=10585

Hope you're right about Steele. I like the guy. No hope for Mr. Erlich...eh?

re- "by and large sold its supporters down the river."

and "betrayed"

are strong language to use to characterize the national party of Lincoln and Reagan..

Sounds like the Democratic Party to me! And they did that years before you have become sentinent. A little perspective is all.

Like I've said before the dominant issue for me is that we prevail in Iraq and against those who would kill us. L.C.D. I expect the pols of either stripe to screw things up on everything else....

K.I.S.S. (Occam's Razor if you please)I say.

This old Letter to the Editor of your favorite paper is dated, but pretty much says it all...still:

http://www.stmarystoday.com/how_can_any_selfrespecting_man.htm

B2

PS- Strongly hope you're right on Steele. He's the right choice for sow many reasons in MD over that slow, shuffling, communistic Cardin....All because, as you know, a Republican must win by 20% of the vote to actually win staewide office in MD due to all the cheating in Balimore City....

[Trevor]

I believe Mr. Hillyer is a bit too optimistic. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see Allen hold on, along with that little weasel Chafee, though I suspect that many of the 40-some percent of Republicans in Rhode Island who almost got Steve Laffey a primary win will sit this one out.

I think Ehrlich will pull it out. I didn't get into it because I dealt merely with Congress in this post, but he's closing hard, as he is wont to do. O'Malley has benefited from some polling that has contained heavy minority padding, and I just don't think Ehrlich has given Marylanders any reason to opt for change.

Ehrlich is a bit more moderate than I'd prefer, but moderation is a prevailing character trait of governors, and he has no choice as a Republican in a blue state. He doesn't champion gun rights, as I'd like, but at the same time he practically feasts on opportunities to butt heads with our leftist legislators. I like that. Not to mention, he's got endorsements from the Washington Post, which is huge, and the Junkies.

As I've written before, if I knew I could have either Steele or Ehrlich but not both, I'd take Ehrlich and the sobriety he brings to Maryland. But one of either is much better than neither.