swordplay

Notes from the Montreal Game

1. I've only been able to watch the third period but where has this Sabres team been all year?!? They're playing hard, they're hitting, they're backchecking, wtf? It reminds me of that old decaf coffee commercial. I think it was for Sanka. "We've secretly replaced Buffalo's hockey team with a real team. Let's see if they notice."

2. It's nice to see Ryan Miller playing well the last couple games. It will increase his trade value if he can have a strong second half.

3. Back to back road wins feels nice.

4. Two wins does not a playoff run make. Talk to me when they've won six in a row.

Random Thoughts Prior to a Shellacking

I probably shouldn't even write that title because my luck it would mean the Sabres win two games in a row since ... forever? I can't even remember. But anyhow, it's a good segue into some random thoughts before tonight's matchup against Les Habitants.

- OK boys, you're basically fully healthy. Let's see whatcha got.

- The fact that Buffalo hasn't fallen assbackward into at least a couple wins in row since I started this blog -- that is, in over two and a half months -- is almost shocking. This team is a train wreck.

- Terry Pegula & Co. have spent a lot of time talking about bringing Stanley Cups to Buffalo, so this is going to sound a bit perverse. But if I were him, my directive to the team for the remainder of the year would be very clear: Every win from here on out will be met with a $25,000 fine. Per person. It's time to play for the first pick next year. On the bright side, it should be an order that's pretty easy to follow.

- There's been a lot of comments by Sabres fans on blogs and chats about how Ville Leino is untradeable because of his salary ($4.5 mil/yr). But these same people say Ryan Miller should be traded. NEWSFLASH: Ryan Miller cannot be traded because there are currently about 30 goalies in the NHL who have better numbers and make about four million less per year. At least Leino would save a team almost two million a year more than Miller would.

- The biggest loss this season could be the retirement of Rick Jeanneret. If the Sabres give us this little to get excited about, what incentive will there be for RJ to stick around?

- I really like Mike Harrington of the Buffalo News, but he scolded Tim Thomas during yesterday's chat for not visiting the White House with the rest of his teammates, saying he should "respect the office." Well, fuck that office. Should Thomas respect other criminals like police officers and congressmen too?

Oh, wait. You expected a radical libertarian to just ignore that one?

- Just announced that Luke Adam is a healthy scratch. How much more evidence is needed to illustrate that Lindy Ruff is the biggest reason there's no chemistry on this team? The one good decision he made was to start the year by putting Adam in between two veterans on the top line. So it stands to reason he just couldn't stick with that recipe for success. And you wonder why Adam's confidence is shot?

- Many people figured Drew Stafford would light it up this year after a career year last season. Count me among the people who thought he was, like many players, just turning it up in a contract year.

- Speaking of contracts, sometimes a GM only has one card to play these days if he really wants to land a free agent, such as front-loading contracts that make guys like Christian Ehrhoff the highest paid player on the team (for a particular year, at least). But it's a mistake to think this doesn't have an effect on players who've been there for years. If you're part of the pampered "core" and your GM throws a ton of money at players who haven't proven themselves to the team yet, you might let your pissiness interfere with your performance.

- I'm so tired of watching these guys skate up to players after sucker punches or cross-checks like they're going to retaliate, then do nothing about it. Typical Ruff in his playing days.

"I like our team. I like everybody we have."

This was Jason Pominville's response at the NHL All-Star Game when Sabres rookie Luke Adam asked his captain, "If you could pick one player on this team to be part of the Buffalo Sabres, do you think you could pick one player?"

Pominville's full response: "I don't know if I'd pick a player. I like our team. I like everybody we have. I like the chemistry we have in our locker room, so I would keep it that way."

Really? Was Jason Pominville aware that his team is in 14th place in the Eastern Conference?

The tragic irony here is that Adam obviously phrased the question in a manner implying that it would be difficult for most people to pick only one player from Team Alfredsson, yet Pominville literally didn't think the Buffalo Sabres could use any help from guys like Jason Spezza, Henrik Lundqvist, Claude Giroux, or Steven Stamkos.

Apparently the job of team captain in Buffalo these days is to master politically correct interview responses, not to play a pivotal role in leading a team to victory.

I have three words for ownership: O. Ver. Haul.

GM Challenge 2012: Jon's Team

Alright.  Trevor threw down the gauntlet last week and challenged Erik and I to play GM for a day.  Erik already posted his proposed roster changes here, and I have specifically avoided reading it so it doesn't influence my roster.  Having said that, I am going to preface the rest of my post with a couple of caveats. 

First, there was a time in my life when I followed hockey religiously.  I knew players, stats, lines, who was hurt, who wasn't, who was coming up on free agency, which teams needed help and where, which teams were buyers, which were sellers, etc.  Let me make this perfectly clear:  That all ended when my kids started walking and it has only gotten worse the older they get.  Now, instead of watching random hockey games and SportsCenter and NHL On The Fly for hours on end, I'm running kids to/from practices, coaching teams, helping with homework, playing Wii and Xbox with the kids, etc.  Throw in a full time job and I can barely keep up with the Sabres these days, let alone the rest of the league.

Second, I am not a math whiz.  Figuring out cap hits for the Sabres is hard enough.  Figuring out how a trade affects the cap numbers for both the Sabres and the team they're trading with gets cumbersome.  Multiply that by the number of trades I think this team needs to make and, well, see #1 above.  I'm not an accountant and I just don't have the time to figure it all out.  My point is, I can't promise that any trade I propose will be cap-safe for both teams.  Therefore, it's quite possible that my trade(s) won't be doable in the real world.  I apologize, but then, I'm not getting paid to be a GM so I can't make it my full time job.

As a result, I am approaching this more from a "things I'd like to see happen" standpoint, and less from a cold, hard numbers standpoint.  I'm not verifying that everything I suggest is 100% doable by all teams involved.  Hey, give me a month, and I'm all over it, but I was given a week, and I'm already almost out of time!  So, if you're going to post a comment that "Toronto can't make that trade because their towel boy has a no trade clause," guess what?  I didn't look up which towel boys have no trade clauses.  Sorry.  (And, yes, I'm actually considering making Toronto's towel boy our top line center.  He can't be worse than Derek Roy.)

So as long as we all agree at the outset that I'm NOT a GM, and I don't have a staff of bean counters doing due diligence for me, that brings us to what I'd do if I WERE the GM.  Except, I'm going to back it up a step and make myself the owner because, let's face it, no GM is going to fire himself and that's exactly where I'm starting.

Step 1:  Fire Darcy Regier.  I'll be the first to admit, I've been a big supporter of Darcy over the years.  I think he's made some shrewd moves.  Let's not forget he's the guy who traded a bag of pucks (aka Chris Gratton) for Daniel Briere.  He also got us Chris Drury.  When he does make a trade, Buffalo usually ends up on the winning end of it.  Plus, he typically drafts well. 

However, he's also the guy who let both Briere AND Drury walk in the same year.  Now, I know the team's spin on it back then was that they could only afford to keep one of them, and they put all their eggs in Drury's basket and he turned around and shafted them.  Hogwash!  (Yep, I've been south of the Mason-Dixon line too long when I bust out words like hogwash.)  Any half-decent GM could have maneuvered to keep both of them.  Bottom line, either Darcy didn't try very hard or he felt Briere was overvalued.  I suspect the latter.  Either way, he was dead wrong.  Even after that, I believed in Darcy.  I really did, and do, respect the way he builds a team, and I respect the way he doesn't get suckered into trading away all his talent for no return.  But, this team is in a world of hurt right now and Darcy has two faults that will prevent a rebuild from happening.  He refuses to trade his homegrown talent, and he refuses to fire his head coach.  A year ago, maybe that was ok.  It's not anymore.  The Sabres need a GM who knows when it's time to rattle the cage.  Darcy's patience has often proved successful.  It is now proving destructive to the team (not to mention annoying to the fans). 

Step 2:  Fire Lindy Ruff.  Six months ago I wouldn't have even been able to type those words.  I really do have a soft spot for Lindy.  I am old enough to remember watching him play in Buffalo.  I think he's a good guy who loves the city of Buffalo and who really does want to win.  But, he has some weaknesses that are getting harder to overlook. 

First, he coddles his players.  I don't know what he does in the locker room, but in public he doesn't let them feel the wrath.  I'm normally all for protecting your players and not calling them out in public, but during a season like this one where you're dead last in the East, the gloves have to come off.  Your players have to feel the pain.  He makes excuses for them.  He goes in front of the media after losses and says he likes the way they played, that there were bad bounces, that they gave a solid effort.  My head is about to explode just thinking about it.  If you think he doesn't overprotect them, go read this post. 

Second, he changes his lines like he's running a fantasy team.  He talks about chemistry all the time.  You can't build chemistry with your line mates if they change every week.  Hell, they change mid-game sometimes. 

Third, he blames injuries for EVERYTHING.  Yes, this team has been snakebit this year when it comes to injuries.  It's part of the game.  The thing is, his "star" players, Vanek, Pominville, Stafford, Miller, they've been healthy for the most part.  This slump started early on, before the injuries started piling up.  And Ryan Miller was in the tank for two solid weeks prior to the Lucic hit, yet his lack of consistent play keeps getting blamed on that hit.

Fourth, his system.  Player after player has left Buffalo and gone on to do well with other teams.  JP Dumont is the one that really slaps you in the face.  In his last four seasons with Buffalo he had:

        2001-2002 - 44 pts and -10

        2002-2003 - 35 pts and -14

        2003-2004 - 53 pts and -9

        2005-2006 - 40 pts and -1

Contrast that with his next four seasons in Nashville:

        2006-2007 - 66 pts and +14

        2007-2008 - 72 pts and +5

        2008-2009 - 65 pts and +1

        2009-2010 - 45 pts and +8

I used to not subscribe to those who said Lindy's system didn't work, that it was designed to throttle his skill players.  I still don't know if I subscribe, but it's hard to argue with numbers like Dumont's.

Finally, it's clear the players no longer respect him.  Any coach who stays in the same place for 14 years is, at some point, going to lose his players' respect.  It has now happend to Lindy.  If he had ANY control at all, this team wouldn't be playing the type of hockey the fans have been subjected to night in and night out. 

For all of these reasons, he has to go. I'll still be sorry when it happens.

Step 3:  Hire a new strength and conditioning coach.  This is the laziest team I've ever seen.  They drag ass up and down the ice every night, they don't finish their hits, they give away sloppy turnovers multiple times per game.  The only time they have any pep at all is when they're trying to get off on a change.  You play like you practice, and I want a coaching staff that runs their asses ragged, and it starts with the conditioning coach. 

The one guy in a leadership role who gets a pass is Ted Black.  There's no doubt the guy can build winning teams.  We all know his history.  He's been in Buffalo less than a year.  I'm willing to assume he's still assessing the team, the players, and the city. 

There!  That takes care of the front office and the coaching staff.  On to the team, and this is where it gets tricky.

Ok, REAAALLY tricky!  I just spent two hours looking at stats, free agency, cap numbers.  I have neither the time nor the inclination to figure this all out so I'm changing tactics.  Below I am listing players I think the team should keep, the players I think the team should get rid of, and the players I think the team should go after.  How they accomplish it all, I have no effing clue. Again, I already have a job and it doesn't include a full-time staff to crunch numbers all day long. 

So, without further ado, let's get to the team.  I'd LOVE to completely gut it.  Get rid of everyone and start over.  But lets be real.  You can't do that.  First, even if you waived everyone, you still need to field a team.  I'm not going to pretend to know what happens when you waive a player and he doesn't get signed elsewhere, but I'm gonna guess you still carry his salary, or at least his cap hit.  In addition, no one is going to trade anything of value without getting something of value in return and, frankly, we don't have a lot of value right now.  Expect to get raped on the trade market.  So, we have to keep some folks we might not otherwise want to keep.

Here's the other thing.  Part of me thinks this team isn't playing well intentionally.  There are rumors that they are tired of Miller.  There are rumors that they are tired of Lindy.  We've seen all of these guys play well in the past.  Something HAS to be up.  Entire teams don't stop playing at the same time unless they WANT to stop playing. 

 

KEEP

Luke Adam - I think he's got solid potential, and I'm giving away other centers later.  Can't give 'em all away!

Nathan Gerbe - How can you not love this kid.  He's like 5-foot-nothin' but he plays like a beast.  He just has no supporting cast right now.

Ville Leino - I'd get rid of him right now if I could, but I can't.  We just paid him a lot of money.  Was it a mistake?  Yes.  But we can't unload him, no one will take him.  I would definitely try to bundle him in a trade, but again, his salary numbers are MUCH bigger than his stat line.  I think we're stuck with him.  The up side is, he's shown he can play in the right environment.

Cody McCormick - He replaces Gaustad, who's gone.  (See below.)

Jason Pominville - He's one of three regulars who still plays hard every single night.  He's earned the right to stay.

Pat Kaleta - He's another of the three who plays hard every night.  Last year, even earlier this year, I would have said McCormick replaces him.  But you can see him trying to change his game.  He's choosing his hits more wisely.  I give him props for adapting his style and I like his energy.

Thomas Vanek - I'm not a huge fan of Vanek's.  I think he's lazy, and he's streaky, but you can't argue with his stats this year.

Tyler Ennis - He's been hurt almost the entire year.  I liked his play last year, and I don't fire guys for injuries unless they're career ending or they're Tim Connolly.

Zack Kassian - Bring him up full time.

Drew Stafford - Stafford is the second biggest disappointment on the team this year.  He was a beast last year, with a career season.  I honestly thought he was on his way to being a 40 goal scorer.  Then he signed his new contract.  Then he disappeared.  Here's the thing though.  When I watch him play, he's doing the right things.  He's getting good chances.  He's working hard.  He's got 127 shots which puts him right on the heels of Vanek and Pominville.  I don't understand why his aren't going in and their's are.  If anyone on this team is truly snakebit, it's him. The play is there, the goals are not.  We know he's capable.  He stays.

Christian Ehrhoff - Solid defenseman.

Jordan Leopold -Does best when he pinches up.

Brayden McNabb -I really want to see more of what this kid can do.

Robyn Regehr -I like his style of play and he's the third player that shows up every night.

Marc-Andre Gragnani - He was on my chopping block until I saw that he's a +10!  He must be doing something right.  He gets another year to see what he does.

Jhonas Enroth - I think once you name him the starter he solidifies instantly.

 

Don't Keep

Brad Boyes - I want to like the guy, but yikes!

Matt Ellis - See above.

Paul Gaustad - He lost my respect when he didn't go after Lucic.  Sorry, Goose. 

Jochen Hecht - I've never liked his style of play.  He's lazy with a capital L.  I know he's only played half the season, but honestly, I haven't noticed.

Derek Roy - When your #1 center has 10 goals on the season you've got HUGE problems.  I'd be open to keeping him as a third line center, but unfortunately he's gonna have to be trade bait.  If I can't trade him then he stays.

TJ Brennan - I honestly don't know what to do with this guy.  Back to Rochester? Trade bait? I don't know.

Andrej Suckera - Yeah, I know how to spell his name.

Mike Weber - If only I could work "suck" into HIS last name.  He's awful.  I don't even want him in Rochester.  If we can't trade him, waive him.

Tyler Myers - I know, I'm crazy, but hang on, I'm trading him.

Ryan Miller - Yup, trading him, too.  The single biggest disappointment this year.

The beauty here is Boyes, Goose, and Hecht are all UFAs at the end of the season.  If I can't trade them, then I simply don't re-sign them. That's $9.825 mil of cap space freed up right there!

Ok, here's where it gets fun.  These are the guys I'd obtain.

 

Free Agent Aquisitions

TJ Oshie - Blues RFA forward.  He's listed on their site as a winger, but I'm pretty sure he's a natural center.  He has a shot at being a franchise calibre player.  The Sabres need to have the best offer sheet.  If they get no one else, they need to get him.

Johnny Boychuk - Bruins UFA defenseman.  I want him in Buffalo.

PK Subban - Habs RFA defenseman.  The Sabres will need both these guys (or others like them, there is a glut of solid defensemen entering the FA market this year) to replace Tyler Myers.  I like Subban because he adds offense.

Corey Schneider - Canucks RFA goaltender.  I'm not sure what the Sabres can do to get him, but Vancouver has Luongo and I think he's an RFA, too.  Schneider is an attractive second goal tender, but I don't know if Buffalo wants to throw starter money at him and someone else is going to.  Then again, maybe he becomes the starter and Enroth stays the backup.

 

Trades

Thomas Vanek and Ryan Miller to Anaheim for Ryan Getzlaf. It's no secret he is way underperforming this year, and Anaheim could use the help in goal.  It gets Buffalo a leader, and a proven points-getter.  It also gets Ryan Miller to California, close to his new wife, and at the end of the day, I think that's what's really vexing him this year.  There's no doubt he has the potential to be a top quality goaltender but he needs a change of scenery and it's a perfect situation for him.  Unfortunately his numbers are way down and it's going to take more than that to pull off this trade.  I know I have Vanek on my keep list, but not if I can pull off this trade, and Anaheim isn't going to give up Getzlaf for no scoring in return.  Hell, I'd throw in a prospect or two as well.  You want blockbuster, I'm selling the farm to get Getzlaf.  By the way, I just dumped twice the salary I gained. #winning.

 And here is where I go off the deep end.  I doubt they'd agree to it, and I'd probably regret having to face the guy I'm giving up on a regular basis.  But, the guy I'm going after has completely impressed me.  I saw him play in person earlier this month in Buffalo and was floored by his speed.  Here is my proposed trade...

Tyler Myers, Derek Roy, and ANY other forward (except Vanek who's going to Anaheim) to Toronto for Phil Kessel.  Like I said, I doubt it happens, but I'm at least making the phone call.

Assuming TO doesn't want to part with Kessel, I still move Myers to improve the offense, assuming I can sign my two FA defensemen listed above.  There are lots of teams that want Myers, and lots of centers better than those we have.  I don't have the time to analyze them all, but I'd definitely shop him on the open market for a strong center.

Alright.  I think I'm done.  I've literally spent hours trying to figure all this out.  I know I don't get into cap hits, etc.  I also realize I never named replacements for Darcy and Lindy.  Sorry, you were warned at the start.  This is as good as it gets.  Have at it. 

GM Challenge 2012: Erik's Team

When Trevor issued this challenge a couple days ago, I thought to myself "Hey, this should be a fun way to spend an afternoon off." After hours of research (I spent an entire day on it), the "fun" subsided and started to turn into frustration.

Why, you ask?

Not because I couldn't find trade partners for some of our assumed "untradeable" core players. Not because I just couldn't figure out how to keep this team under the cap. None of the above.

The frustration came as a result of uncovering how easy it would actually be to turn this team around, making them an NHL powerhouse for years to come. It would only take a few simple steps. Steps for some reason the current management team hasn't ever been able to figure out. Trust me, I know my limits and understand the needs of other teams as well -- this is a "no bullshit" roster that is astonishingly attainable.

I will explain every single move I made as meticulously and comprehensively as possible, hopefully leaving no questions as to why or how I achieved this roster by the end.

* * *

So I'm going to start this off with four lists: Staying, Going, Replacements, and Take 'em or Leave 'em. The Staying, Going and Replacements categories obviously speak for themselves, the latter on the other hand is saved for a group of current players that can be either 1) bundled into trades, 2) buried in the AHL, or 3) kept on the roster as healthy scratches.

Note: Some of my determined moves may make some of you a little (or extremely) uneasy, so do me a favor and let go off any man crushes you may currently have, as it may cloud your ability to view my roster fairly. Remember, I'm doing this for the greater good of the Buffalo Sabres organization.

Staying:

Thomas Vanek, Jason Pominville, Ville Leino, Luke Adam, Nathan Gerbe, Zack Kassian, Cody McCormick, Corey Tropp, Robyn Regehr, Christian Ehrhoff, Jordan Leopold, Brayden McNabb, T.J. Brennan, Jhonas Enroth

Going:

Derek Roy, Ryan Miller, Tyler Myers, Patrick Kaleta, Brad Boyes, Jochen Hecht, Paul Gaustad

Replacements:

Ryan Getzlaf, T.J. Oshie, Zach Parise, Mike Rupp, Greg Zanon, either Scott Hannan or Jim Vandermeer, Tukka Rask

Take 'em or Leave 'em:

Drew Stafford, Mike Weber, Andrej Sekera, Tyler Ennis, Marc-Andre Gragnani, Matt Ellis

* * *

Okay, has everyone caught their breath? Good. The hard part is over.

Trust me, as I typed those lists, it wasn't even easy for me to see certain names in certain places. A name like Leino on the "Staying" list is probably a shock to many, but you saw what this guy did when he actually played with capable linemates (and actually played the position he was meant for). Also, if you think I'm completely off-base with some of the additions to this team, hang in there, it's easier than you would think. I have a method to all of this madness, so let's get started with the players that will be making their departures upon my hiring.

Let's start out with the easiest and most obvious: Gaustad, Hecht and Boyes are headed into unrestricted free agency and don't deserve new contracts. Hecht's career is all but over due to concussions, Boyes has severely underproduced, and where many would argue Gaustad's leadership could be missed, I ask you to go back and watch the Lucic hit on Miller just one more time; he was on the ice when our Sabres did nothing about it. Bye-bye.

The next easiest in line is Patrick Kaleta. Although I've always enjoyed the upside of Pat -- his tenacity, heart and penalty killing -- it's easy to see that the league is out to get him these days. He's no longer able to play his game and contribute his assets to help this team win. I don't agree with the league's lasting dark view on Kaleta, but what else did you expect to happen when you go and headbutt dudes in the face? I'll miss you, but you gotta go. Corey Tropp is going to turn out to be a better player anyway.

Now it gets a little hairy. Not as much in terms of someone like Derek Roy, but Ryan Miller and especially Tyler Myers are still loved and valued by many. I understand the Myers portion of the argument, not necessarily the Miller side. I know this segment is going to require the most justification on my end, so let's dive head first into it.

Ryan Miller makes over $6 million a year and has been putting up mediocre numbers. People like to say he's having a bad year, but if you go back and look at 2010-2011, he wasn't so hot then either. I'm not a Ryan Miller hater, I'm more of a "giving Ryan Miller $6 million +" hater. Big difference. If your goalie is anything short of a Hasek, (Patrick) Roy or Brodeur, they just aren't worth that much money anymore. Plus, he's 31, if he hasn't found his niche yet, he ain't gonna.

A potent offense and solid defense usually make an above average goalie look like a superstar (hence Ryan Miller). If you think about it, the majority of the teams to win the Stanley Cup in the past decade didn't have an absolute future hall of famer between the pipes. For example, Chris Osgood will be a hall of famer one day but it won't be because he was stealing Cups for the Red Wings; the Red Wings made Chris Osgood what he is.

Now for Tyler Myers. This guy has possibly the biggest upside in the NHL. He's tall, he has a long reach, a good shot, and plays solid D. Some say that he'll be the next Zdeno Chara, but I tend to disagree. Sure he has the potential, but under the current system, there's no way in hell he'll ever reach that level of stardom. Stuck in Lindy's soft world of hockey, he's never going to grow into the type of player he would in a place like Boston, Philly or Detroit.

So although a tough decision, I traded him to Anaheim for Ryan Getzlaf, a fundamentally sound hockey stud with tons of leadership and grit. The Sabres need size (a lot of grit) and skill at the center position. Plus, with a cap hit of $5.5 mil next season (and the arrival of Brayden McNabb), I'm not going to roll the dice on Tyler hopefully becoming Zdeno Chara. I'd even bundle in some of my "take 'em or leave 'em" players if they really wanted, but I honestly think they would be the ones offering me extra players. Hell, if they want to give us Toni Lydman back, I'll take him.

There's always the possibility of Myers hurting you as part of an opposing team one day, but that's a risk that needs to be taken.

Oh, I almost forgot to mention: Possibly the biggest strength Getzlaf would bring to this team is the ability to nurture youngsters like Kassian and Adam into Getzlaf-esque players one day. Imagine that shit!

In a perfect world, the Myers/Getzlaf deal would be done before the deadline. Why? Because that would show UFAs like Zach Parise, Greg Zanon, Scott Hannan and Tukka Rask that I mean business, encouraging them to sign on to a winning (or at least highly competitive) team on July 1st.

The rest is cake. We'll start with T.J. Oshie. He's headed into RFA territory at the end of the season. I'll send an offer sheet for Oshie to the Blues with a big $5.125 million cap hit, an offer that the Blues honestly can't afford (having plenty of other UFAs and RFAs to deal with by season's end). And if RFA contracts can be structured just like all the others, I'd front load that shit with T-Pegs' money just to make sure St. Louis can't compete for him. They would get some draft picks in return (a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd rounder) but I'm sold that I would be the beneficiary of this deal.

Next, sometime in the off-season I would try to strike a deal with the Rangers for Mike Rupp. Offering New York a Stafford or Roy would be a steal for them if they could take on the salary. Rupp offers plenty of size and toughness, plus an above average amount of talent for 4th line winger.

If I can't make that happen, I'd be more than happy to pick up George Parros for a million bucks in free agency this off-season.

Finally, I'll try to take players like Miller and some of the "take 'em or leave 'em" guys and send them out as bait for draft picks in return. The ones that I can't get rid of will be buried in Rochester to live out the rest of their contracts. That might be the hardest strategy to sell Mr. Pegula on, but I'll be quick to remind him that I wasn't the one who fucked up his team, just the one who's cleaning up the mess of the person that did.

So that pretty much sums it up, but I still have to get these guys under the cap, right? Wait till you see how easy this shit is.

Before any trades, and RFA or UFA signings, the remaining roster found in the "Staying" category amounts to $35.863 million (assuming T.J. Brennan signs for around $1.25 mil). Add Ryan Getzlaf's $5.325 mil to it and that brings it up to $41.188. Oshie's cap hit of $5.125 and Parise's estimated cap hit of $7.1 (but you could probably get it down to $6.4) brings it to $53.413. Tukka Rask should be available for around $2 mil, if not I'd get another quality backup like Brent Johnson in free agency, banking on having Enroth as my starter anyway. With a total of $55.413 million, defensemen Greg Zanon can be had for about $2.3 mil, and Scott Hannan will cost about $1.25, bringing the total to $56.963 million.

That brings me to Tyler Ennis. He's a RFA after this season, I'll try to sign him for $1.125 mil, but if anyone extends an offer sheet for more, he's gone too. He hasn't proved enough to me where I would consider any higher of a value. I honestly don't think he'll see an offer sheet in the summer anyway. He wouldn't hurt to have around anyway, I mean, he never even plays.

The remaining cap room will be used to keep around players to fill out the roster. If Mike Weber, Matt Ellis, Andrej Sekera or even Drew Stafford end up sticking around, there will be plenty of room under the current cap for a couple of them.

* * *

Another part of this exercise was to come up with my top coaching candidates. So they are (in order): Randy Carlyle, Mike Haviland, and Marc Crawford. All three have had success at the NHL level, two have already coached Stanley Cup-winning teams. Carlyle is my obvious choice because he demands a strong work ethic and physical play from his players, and he of course has great knowledge of the game as a whole. If I couldn't scoop him up, the others would be just fine for the job, but Carlyle would definitely sign on just for Getzlaf alone.

So let's get to the fun part we'll never actually see happen (according to an article written by John Vogl recently): My starting lineups.

1st Line: Parise----Getzlaf----Leino

2nd Line: Vanek----Oshie---Pominville

3rd Line: Gerbe---- Adam----Kassian

4th Line: Rupp---McCormick--Tropp

Defense:

Regehr--------McNabb

Zanon---------Ehrhoff

Leopold-------Brennan

Goalies: Enroth, Rask

Scratches: Ellis, Gragnani, Sekera

So there you have it. I'm very confident in my team. This team brings the perfect balance of skill, size, speed, toughness and leadership. Just think about what it would be like for the Sabres' opposition to have to face this first line alone, then before they know it, they have to deal with Vanek and Pommer too. Not to mention how much this roster and a new coach would boost the Sabres toughness. All this for a price of about $62 million dollars, more than 2 million less than this shit roster we're forced into watching now.

It's depressing to know that we're not going to see anything like this in the near future. But it's still fun to play "what could have been," I guess. I've pretty much lost all faith in Terry Pegula already, he obviously doesn't know a thing about running a professional hockey team. Decorating arenas, yes, but TVs in restrooms don't win you Stanley Cups.

This is such a feasible lineup it isn't even funny. Sure there are some names not on the roster that you would want to stick around for a little while longer, but the GMs that have the balls to make the tough decisions are usually the successful ones. We're still stuck with a GM who's never made those tough decisions, and look where it's gotten us.

GM Challenge 2012

Since we've got a week of no real hockey due to the all-star break, I thought this would be a good time to issue a challenge to my fellow Swordplay bloggers. Congratulations, Erik and Jon, you've been selected as finalists for the (never-vacant-but-hey-a-guy-can-dream) position of general manager of the Buffalo Sabres.

Your task is to draft the roster you intend to put on the ice on opening day 2012-13. Since we don't know what next year's salary cap will be, just use this year's cap as the salary limit. The goal here is not to develop your "dream roster" -- i.e., no all-star teams -- but to build a team realistically. To accurately assess the worth of your current Buffalo Sabres. To determine who goes and who stays in your quest to balance grit, skill, and leadership.

In other words, you need to walk into your interview with Terry Pegula and Ted Black with plans for a winner or this meeting will be over in three minutes.

If you know this team as well as you think you do, it's time to put Terry's money where your mouth is.

Finally, Terry and Ted are going to ask for your top three coaching candidates because they've finally realized this team needs a fresh set of eyes from behind the bench too.

Good luck. And remember: It's time for a Cup. Fo' reals this time.

Random Thoughts During the 2nd Intermission

- Danny Gare is drinking the Kool-Aid. He said Lindy Ruff is just glad to get a couple blueliners back (Ehrhoff and Regehr). Gimme a break. Let's see how much of a difference that makes.

- Johan Hecht (10 points to anyone who gets that reference) out with concussion symptoms. Season over.

- Tyler Myers totally took a shot to the nuts. Damn.

- The Sabres' brutal play manifests itself in its broadcast. Not sure how RJ didn't make it to NJ, but Kevin Sylvester asked if Brodeur was allowed to play with a broken stick. To Brian Duff's credit, he said "absolutely." My father me taught this when I was seven.

- Flipped to the Caps/Bruins game. Caps feed. They showed the B's team visit to Obamahouse then showed Tim Thomas on the bench, then Laughlin and Beninati proceeded to shit-talk Thomas's decision to pass on the visit. They both thought he should've gone because it's a team sport, then Laughlin said he could've expressed his opinion to Obama during a handshake instead of using Facebook.

Two points: 1) yeah, like Obama gives a shit and 2) like that was the point.

As my brother told me today, it's too bad hockey isn't more popular -- if Peyton Manning said something like that, a billion people would hear about it -- but at least Thomas did what he did. And he'll be crucified for it to the extent the media concerns its collective self about hockey. Fucking heroic.

- Were "broadcasts" originally started by women?

Time to Play for First

First pick in next year's draft, that is.

I actually want the Sabres to lose every single game for the rest of the year. I think they can do it if they really try, but even this team will probably fall ass backward into a few more wins. From a fan perspective, if you can't finish first, you might as well finish dead last. It's only logical. How many times would you've rather not even made the playoffs than had to suffer gut-wrenching conference finals losses?

Not only should we all want Buffalo to get the first pick when the playoffs are no longer a reality, but I’m literally afraid that unless the team drums home its ineptitude by losing the rest of its games, ownership will refuse to clean house.

This team needs a complete and total rebuild, from the GM on down to the coach and players. You could start to sense the stagnation a couple seasons ago, but the stench is front and center now.

On the bright side, it's fun to get something brand new, so ownership and its new management team should enjoy this opportunity because it doesn't come along every day. It's like when you buy a new car. You're always excited to drive it home for the first time and show it off.

The 2006 Buffalo Sabres were fresh and clean and new. They were an exciting new model. But the 2011 Buffalo Sabres are now just old and boring -- we're stuck paying off the same loan as we were before, only now with all the dents and scratches.

It's time to trade in this jalopy for a shiny, new 2012 model. No better way than to grab a superstar with the first pick overall and go from there.

Tim Thomas Is My F*cking Hero!

Okay, calm down. I still despise the Bruins.

But seriously, Tim Thomas is the effin' man. We all knew this four years ago (or whenever it was) when he was mic'd up in the All-star game in Montreal (I think). He was funny. He giggled like a little kid while joking around with the commentators. It was entertainment at its best. Listen, I've always hated the Bruins, but in a time where All-star games have become the most retarded thing since the DMV, Tim Thomas made it exciting.

Well, I'm happy to say that he got my attention again, in a BIG way.

The Stanley Cup champions celebrated their most recent achievement with Barack Obama at the White House on Monday afternoon. Thomas was a no show. And instead of making the typical bullshit excuse that most spineless people would, he told it how it was. He gave the government a big "Fuck You" without actually saying it.

This is his direct quote from nhl.com:

"I believe the Federal government has grown out of control, threatening the Rights, Liberties, and Property of the People.

This is being done at the Executive, Legislative, and Judicial level. This is in direct opposition to the Constitution and the Founding Fathers vision for the Federal government.

Because I believe this, today I exercised my right as a Free Citizen, and did not visit the White House. This was not about politics or party, as in my opinion both parties are responsible for the situation we are in as a country. This was about a choice I had to make as an INDIVIDUAL."

Fucking beautiful. Tim, you are my hero.

Recent Addition Should Equal Subtraction

A current 12-game road losing streak + a 3-10-2 record in their last fifteen + failure to win back to back games since November 11th + the all-star break staring you in the face + the trade deadline less than five weeks away = The perfect time to fire your coach and general manager

Unfortunately this is all hypothetical. If Pegula was set on making a change, one would think it would have happened long before now. Instead, he decided it would be a better option to preach patience and lean heavily on the injury excuse.

Overall, we're stuck with the decisions he's made (or failed to make) up until this point, but according to my simple math problem, now is as good a time as ever to move forward and change the culture of this franchise.

It's taken some of us more time than others, but the consensus now seems to be simply, "Fire Ruff and Regier."

So assuming a firing could actually occur, this is my logic:

The all-star break will give the Sabres an entire week off. A week that could be used to clean up a mess that was once a slow simmer, but has recently compiled into a rolling boil. We have witnessed a full collapse, it's not going to get any better without some kind of action.

This is ideal. This week off could give a new GM the time he needs to settle in and assess his new team (and coach) fairly. After a couple weeks of evaluation, the trade deadline will be upon us. Presuming the Sabres will be sellers, it would give this new GM an opportunity to immediately start building this team for the future.

Forget about acquiring players in trades. As much as I hate to say it, this season is beyond salvageable, so the new GM should be going after draft picks and prospects. The Sabres are well on their way to getting a top 5 draft pick already, bulking up with more picks wouldn't hurt at all. Plus, trading for picks would jump start the next important move: dumping salary.

The overpaid talent on this team needs to go; preferably by trade. I know Regier hasn't been able to make any (Brian Burke's comments on Darcy have spread like wildfire in recent weeks, they're obviously valid), maybe a new guy can. If not, waiving is the only option. As we look forward to another year of free agency, cap space is a necessity. Let's not forget that Tyler Myers will be making a lot more money next year, too.

A fresh face in the GM chair would be able to judge Lindy's performance accurately as well. He would be able to point out his shortcomings without a friendship getting in the way. He would be able to see how much his coach's soft attitude has negatively affected his team. He would be able to pull the trigger on him, a thing Regier isn't capable of.

***

What are the odds of this happening? I'm afraid to answer that. We'll know in two days whether or not this is just another one of my fantasies.

If I'm wrong (which I probably am), we'll get a real good look at where ownership stands by deadline day. If Pegula trusts Regier enough to make trade deadline moves, we'll have our answer to who will be the Sabres GM next year too.

Honestly, I don't know if I can make it through another season of this much frustration and despair.

Farewell to a Friend

There are people who come along in life who you don't think much about, take for granted, until they're suddenly not around anymore. Chris Marrs was one of those people for me. I met Chris three and a half years ago. He was a systems analyst and software tester in my office. For about a year and a half, I sat next to the test team, and Chris was two cubes down the aisle from me. From the minute I arrived, Chris and I hit it off. Yes, we were like-minded on politics and life, we both shared a love for labrador retrievers, and we could talk about anything, but what made us really hit it off was our mutual passion for the sport of hockey. Chris, being a lifelong resident of the DC area, was a die-hard Caps fan, much the way I'm a die-hard Sabres fan. We would talk on a regular basis about our respective teams and commiserate about how good or bad one or the other was doing. He was one of those rare fans who never gave you a hard time when your team lost to his. He genuinely felt sorry with you when your team struggled, and was happy for you when your team was doing well, even if his was in a slump.

Two years ago, we relocated to a new facility. Chris and I ended up in different buildings and our conversations became much less frequent as a result. But, whenever I bumped into him he was quick to start talking sports in general, and hockey in particular, and we'd end up talking for quite a while, usually resulting in me being late to a meeting.

Chris was taken from us by a heart attack last Saturday at the way-too-young age of 56. He left behind a wife, three daughters, an office full of people who will miss him and, judging from today's memorial service, a whole heck of a lot of friends whose lives he touched.

Our friendship was easy. It happened easily, it was easily maintained. It required no thought. It was easily taken for granted. And so Chris, I, who took our friendship for granted, who always thought I'd see you tomorrow, I want you to know that I will miss our 30 minute conversations about politics, about family, about life, and most of all, about hockey. I will miss your gregarious personality, your willingness to help in any situation, and your friendship. God speed, Chris. And, for you my friend, this one time,

C-A-P-S, Caps, Caps, Caps!

Injuries to Byfuglien/Bogosian Hamstring Sabres

The Buffalo Sabres couldn't overcome the absence of Dustin Byfuglien and Zach Bogosian as the Winnipeg Jets cruised to a 4-1 victory last night in MTS Centre.

Stick a Fork In 'Em

Giving up five goals to the Red Wings and six to Chicago is one thing. Losing 4-1 to the lowly Winnipeg Jets is sobering. It is further proof that the Sabres truly are one of the worst teams in hockey right now. I feel like all I do is keep saying the same things over and over so I'm not even going to try tonight. I'm guessing Lindy Ruff probably feels much the same way. Whatever. I'm going to bed.

I Don't Understand...

... why Ville Leino isn't a healthy scratch tonight after his shenanigans last night. Can anyone explain the logic here?

Blackhawks Blame Victory on Injury to Patrick Sharp

That's all I wanted to say.

Time to watch Moneyball.

Lindy Ruff's Swan Song

At 14:30 in the second period of tonight's game, Ville Leino executed a perfect no look, between the legs drop pass... to Duncan Kieth of the Blackhawks. Keith passed the puck to Hossa on a breakaway and bam, the Hawks had their third goal of the night.

Under normal circumstances, any coach worth his salt would have immediately benched a player who did something like that. These aren't normal circumstances. The Sabres have lost a franchise record NINE road games. Leino, once thought of as the answer to Buffalo's woes at center, has performed horribly since his arrival. If ANYONE on this team should be on a short leash, expected to do everything right and not take silly chances, it should be him.

Not only did Lindy not bench Leino, but he actually seemed to defend the boneheaded play of his centerman-turned-winger! When asked by Pierre McGuire "What can you do to get your guys more energized here for the rest of this game?", Lindy replied with the following: "I think that we've been burning them trying to make a couple of plays. You look at the Leino play. Tough decision. He makes a good play, we're gonna get an offensive opportunity. Go the other way and, you know, Chicago's deadly."

Are you freakin' kidding me? What I WANTED to hear him say was "You know Pierre, that Leino play is what's wrong with this team. It's completely unacceptable. I'm announcing here on NBC Sports that his entire line has been waived effective immediately."

All sarcasm aside, even if I knew nothing else about this team other than that particular play by Leino and its end result, I would honestly say that Lindy should lose his job for that quote alone.

I still stand by my take in yesterday's post that a coaching change alone won't solve this team's problems, but I am now convinced that Lindy needs to go.

As I type this, the score just went to 6-2 on a Toews goal and the Hawks seem to actually be laughing at the Sabres as they celebrate the goal. There is no hope for the remainder of this season unless major changes are made.

Schadenfreude, Anyone?

I've never really been the type of person to take pleasure in other people's misfortune, but when people seemingly insist on visiting despair upon themselves, it's hard not to laugh.

Or to root them on, for that matter.

As recent events have illustrated, the Buffalo Sabres have not only failed -- and failed spectactularly -- to live up to self-imposed expectations, ownership has also made it clear that there will be no attempt to salvage the season (or to get a jump on improving prior to the summer) by doing anything but adhering to the status quo.

I think Erik might have been a bit too harsh on new Sabres owner Terry Pegula yesterday, but let's not confuse harsh with offbase. The Sabres are indeed the softest team in hockey, a culture that has been instilled by management and reflected by most of its players over the years.

In fact, if I read one more article about Ryan Miller's lip quivering during a post-game interview, I swear I'm going to burn every last one of my fucking Sabres hats. To quote Phil Wenneck, pull yourself together, bro.

Here's where we are: When the face of your franchise is a basketcase, you're pretty much screwed.

Erik commented last night that it's "rather fun" to watch Miller's career unravel before our eyes. I don't share this sentiment. Interesting? Surreal? Yes. Fun? No. I don't want the Sabres to suck (Well, suck enough for the rest of the year to get the first pick in the draft? Sure.) I don't take any pleasure in watching an individual's career go down the drain, especially if he's on my team.

However, what I do enjoy watching is insanity in action. They say the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. This is Darcy Regier in a nutshell. So while I may not get much satisfaction watching a player battle psychological issues that could be out of his control, I can't say the same for a GM who has every opportunity to objectively evaluate his team yet chooses to adhere to fantasy as a strategy for success.

Ryan Miller has always been somewhat of a headcase, but I believe he now realizes that every player in the league can beat him over his glove shoulder. He can do nothing about it. He is done.

Let me repeat that: Ryan Miller is done. I take no pride in writing that. He still gets the last laugh because he's a multi-millionaire, but just because an owner, GM, and coach think you can live up to your contract doesn't mean you can. Failing to both realize and act on this now will only further delay the Sabres' reversal of this downward spiral.

The problem is not injuries (you don't see Philly bitching about the loss of Chris Pronger for the season). I hope Mr. Pegula knows this. I hope he was just trying to provide some positive reinforcement while he figures out how to right this ship when he chalked up his team's horrendous play to bad luck. Because if he truly buys the injury excuse -- and let's face it, he seemed pretty convinced last week -- he's going to sell this team well before he wins a Cup.

Terry, this is what complete disarray looks like.

Complete disarray metastasizes itself in things like pathetic excuses when you can't pinpoint tangible reasons for failure. It's just like chemistry, which the Sabres continually say they need to develop in order to find success. But "chemistry" is the word you use when you can't find any rational, tangible explanation for why things work so well.

Just as things often work out unexpectedly and with seemingly little effort, sometimes nothing works no matter what you do.

I may not know much, but one thing I do know is that guys like Derek Roy, Drew Stafford, Ville Leino, Nathan Gerbe, and Tyler Ennis do not suck; they're in a pretty exclusive fraternity for a reason. But despite all the denial by Sabres brass, the combination of players they've assembled just isn't working.

Yes, your guess is as good as mine.

But the job of a GM is to, at minimum, be able to identify this. I've never thought much of Lindy Ruff as a coach, but this poor schmuck just looks lost behind the bench. He has the look of a guy who knows he's lost his team and, if nothing else, he needs to be fired for his own sake (in addition to my own).

In the meantime, the Sabres find themselves mired in a dreadful seven-game roadtrip. Any sober fan knew the Detroit game was over before it started last night; it was only a matter of by how much. The same goes for tomorrow night in Chicago. The word "dismantled" comes to mind. I don't see Buffalo winning more than one game on this roadie -- hell, they've already dropped the first two -- but the only thing that could potentially improve their odds is for Enroth to get the starts from now on until he loses two in a row.

Like it or not, the future is either Enroth or someone else. The options going forward for Miller are 1) buyout or 2) AHL. He is currently untradeable -- who'd give up property and take on that contract? -- and I doubt he'd even be picked up on waivers. He is the definition of sunk cost, and even I don't think Regier is dumb enough to keep him around given his cap hit. (Of course, Regier ideally wouldn't be around to have this decision on his hands.)

There's really no succinct explanation for the state of the Buffalo Sabres -- they've worked hard to create this mess over many years -- but if there's one thing that needs to end it's the incestuousness that defines this team. From the cozy, unhealthy relationship that is Regier/Ruff to the famed "core" that has spent more time together than most married couples, it's just time for a divorce.

And yes, until Terry Pegula and Co. realize this, I'll be reveling in the ignorance and naivete that currently define them.

To paraphrase Phil Wenneck, You actually gonna ride this or are you guys just fuckin' with me?

Taking Notes from Jim Irsay

Even though Lindy Ruff has finally confessed that he won't be blaming injuries anymore, I'm still sick to my stomach that he (and the rest of the Sabres organization) actually resorted to that in the first place. Many fans and members of the media veritably fell into his hands at first, but barring a few stragglers, it seems that most have come back to their senses. I'm proud to say that I never bought the whole injury fairy tale.

Actually, when the Sabres started using this to vindicate their poor play, I recall thinking to myself, "I can't remember anyone or any team that has EVER used injuries as an excuse!"

Then I thought, "maybe I'm wrong; maybe I'm missing something." Maybe there was an occurrence at some point in the past that I wasn't familiar with (I'm not a sports encyclopedia), but I still refused to buy the injury excuse from day one.

Then it happened, just about ten minutes ago. I got home from work and turned on the TV, ESPN News read: Indianapolis Colts Fire Jim Caldwell.

Jim Irsay already fired both Polians two weeks ago, so why would he stop with them?

No one actually believed that the Colts would go anywhere without Peyton Mannning this year, and we ended up being right. But I have a lot of respect for an owner that refuses to use the loss of a quarterback (future hall of famer or not) as an excuse for their failure. Irsay obviously had a standard that he expected his team and coaches to meet, and when they proved incapable, he had enough evidence to take action.

I applaud that.

So Terry, it appears you've been looking in the wrong places for all your answers. You should obviously be making a phone call right now to Mr. Irsay for some guidance on how to run a professional sports team the way it should be.

Follow the Yellow Brick Road

I keep seeing references to Terry Pegula's comments likening the Sabres to Humpty Dumpty, and that they just need to get all their pieces back.  It occurs to me that the better analogy is the Tin Man from the Wizard of Oz.  The Sabres' problems this year have nothing to do with injuries and everything to do with a complete and total lack of heart.  You see it every night.  Lazy play, awful turnovers, and no leadership on the ice.  You see flashes of brilliance followed by, well, nothing!  All you had to do is watch the Red Wings game last night to see it.  There was a working, well-oiled, fully-functional professional hockey team.  And then there was the complete polar opposite.  I don't have to tell you which was which, but you can't get a clearer picture than that.

The problem is, I don't know how you fix "heart".  You can't heal it.  You can't tape it up, shoot it full of cortisone and lidocaine, and "get it back out there."  You can't perform surgery on it or rehab it.  You either have it or you don't, and this team doesn't have it.  The only way to fix this kind of heart problem is a transplant.  Remove the old, put in new.  At this point, I can't even blame Lindy anymore.  At this point it's not the coach, the system, how old or new the locker room is.  This now lies SQUARELY on the players!  Obviously, these guys are capable of playing solid hockey.  We've seen them do it.  But how do you get them to play each and every night?  (Hell, I'd settle for three solid periods right now.)  If they don't have it in them, no coach in the world can put it there.  And that brings me to this... I no longer believe that bringing in a new coach can solve this problem. I'm not saying Lindy Ruff shouldn't lose his job... he probably should.  But the Sabres need an infusion of heart.  The problem is, it's becoming clear that Darcy isn't the great and powerful Oz.  I'm willing to bet he's trying to work a trade and can't get anyone to bite.  Let's face it.  The Ryan Getzlafs of the world aren't going to want to come to Buffalo with the way things are going, and no team is going to want what we're offering to get them anyway.

The bottom line is that they need to split up the core of this team.  Every one of these guys could succeed on other teams where there is already a core group of leaders in place, but together it's obvious they're never going to get there. 

What's it going to take to win?  To quote Gene Hackman in The Replacements... "Heart.  Miles and Miles of Heart."

Looking Forward to the Wings Game Tonight

Haven't actually seen a real hockey team in quite awhile.

Just remember, the reason we'll lose is because we'll have up to four D-men on the shelf.

By the way, I think my theory still holds. After Regehr's injury, the Sabres remain the only team in the league whose players can get hurt without anything noticeable happening.